diff --git a/manifest b/manifest
index e86e7242aa..8a54593787 100644
--- a/manifest
+++ b/manifest
@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
-C Fix\sa\sharmless\scompiler\swarning\sinside\san\sassert()\sin\sFTS4.
-D 2014-10-06T12:41:57.462
+C Improve\sthe\saccuracy\sof\sthe\sestimates\sused\swhen\ssearching\san\sindex\sfor\svalues\snot\spresent\sin\sany\sstat4\ssamples.
+D 2014-10-06T14:37:48.824
 F Makefile.arm-wince-mingw32ce-gcc d6df77f1f48d690bd73162294bbba7f59507c72f
 F Makefile.in cf57f673d77606ab0f2d9627ca52a9ba1464146a
 F Makefile.linux-gcc 91d710bdc4998cb015f39edf3cb314ec4f4d7e23
@@ -166,7 +166,7 @@ F sqlite.pc.in 42b7bf0d02e08b9e77734a47798d1a55a9e0716b
 F sqlite3.1 3d8b83c91651f53472ca17599dae3457b8b89494
 F sqlite3.pc.in 48fed132e7cb71ab676105d2a4dc77127d8c1f3a
 F src/alter.c ba266a779bc7ce10e52e59e7d3dc79fa342e8fdb
-F src/analyze.c 6290a109be876daaa242cd7216f97240f5401776
+F src/analyze.c ee85c504829aea05489ed0c67cbcd68d6a1ea7dd
 F src/attach.c f4e94df2d1826feda65eb0939f7f6f5f923a0ad9
 F src/auth.c d8abcde53426275dab6243b441256fcd8ccbebb2
 F src/backup.c a31809c65623cc41849b94d368917f8bb66e6a7e
@@ -175,7 +175,7 @@ F src/btmutex.c 49ca66250c7dfa844a4d4cb8272b87420d27d3a5
 F src/btree.c fa00618117fb6bb46c243452c56997c0d22d4fc9
 F src/btree.h a79aa6a71e7f1055f01052b7f821bd1c2dce95c8
 F src/btreeInt.h 1bd7957161a1346a914f1f09231610e777a8e58d
-F src/build.c bde83dd5cf812e310a7e5ad2846790a14745bef4
+F src/build.c 9e5205db9a0c8a1a4ce7379d60a2a34cb0b7339c
 F src/callback.c 7b44ce59674338ad48b0e84e7b72f935ea4f68b0
 F src/complete.c 535183afb3c75628b78ce82612931ac7cdf26f14
 F src/ctime.c bb434068b5308a857b181c2d204a320ff0d6c638
@@ -232,7 +232,7 @@ F src/shell.c 38f627b0885191357f55902a3ac199de90d79715
 F src/sqlite.h.in 4a5e5158c189d2bcd45c7c4607c2c0eb6d25c153
 F src/sqlite3.rc 992c9f5fb8285ae285d6be28240a7e8d3a7f2bad
 F src/sqlite3ext.h 17d487c3c91b0b8c584a32fbeb393f6f795eea7d
-F src/sqliteInt.h 5a430c5443717d7c5e2c224f9dcc2534348dc3f6
+F src/sqliteInt.h 3e4bd1b2288528b6a7f2d52709618572b422ab7e
 F src/sqliteLimit.h 164b0e6749d31e0daa1a4589a169d31c0dec7b3d
 F src/status.c 961d5926e5a8fda611d385ec22c226b8635cd1cb
 F src/table.c 2e99ef7ef16187e17033d9398dc962ce22dab5cb
@@ -326,6 +326,7 @@ F test/analyze9.test 72795c8113604b5dcd47a1498a61d6d7fb5d041a
 F test/analyzeA.test 3335697f6700c7052295cfd0067fc5b2aacddf9a
 F test/analyzeB.test 8bf35ee0a548aea831bf56762cb8e7fdb1db083d
 F test/analyzeC.test 555a6cc388b9818b6eda6df816f01ce0a75d3a93
+F test/analyzeD.test 08f9d0bee4e118a66fff3a32d02dbe0ee0a2b594
 F test/async.test 1d0e056ba1bb9729283a0f22718d3a25e82c277b
 F test/async2.test c0a9bd20816d7d6a2ceca7b8c03d3d69c28ffb8b
 F test/async3.test d73a062002376d7edc1fe3edff493edbec1fc2f7
@@ -1201,7 +1202,7 @@ F tool/vdbe_profile.tcl 67746953071a9f8f2f668b73fe899074e2c6d8c1
 F tool/warnings-clang.sh f6aa929dc20ef1f856af04a730772f59283631d4
 F tool/warnings.sh 0abfd78ceb09b7f7c27c688c8e3fe93268a13b32
 F tool/win/sqlite.vsix deb315d026cc8400325c5863eef847784a219a2f
-P b8f7f19dc06c59de2e194d83e6c052fb7d28c71d
-R 4c5bc018ecacdd56e0a0b436c7d98214
-U drh
-Z bf48e2ee6f6966054d7eb786534348de
+P 418f3c9ad28672e5fe38d772d34e7cf8d26bc0e1 fc619be057975b8be6d0958024c5d436edbdf084
+R 08d6dd1c11aa3044fd1c3c851cac54a0
+U dan
+Z 0fcae61ad3d53701c4c43039d043043c
diff --git a/manifest.uuid b/manifest.uuid
index 3d35e96c0c..3fb60d9ba8 100644
--- a/manifest.uuid
+++ b/manifest.uuid
@@ -1 +1 @@
-418f3c9ad28672e5fe38d772d34e7cf8d26bc0e1
\ No newline at end of file
+3aff9a9cac7aa994dfdaa0ab5c23ae73a1e820f0
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/analyze.c b/src/analyze.c
index aec1f021ea..6b244dd9a7 100644
--- a/src/analyze.c
+++ b/src/analyze.c
@@ -1448,12 +1448,12 @@ static void decodeIntArray(
 #ifdef SQLITE_ENABLE_STAT3_OR_STAT4
     if( aOut ){
       aOut[i] = v;
-    }else
+    }
 #else
     assert( aOut==0 );
     UNUSED_PARAMETER(aOut);
 #endif
-    {
+    if( aLog ){
       aLog[i] = sqlite3LogEst(v);
     }
     if( *z==' ' ) z++;
@@ -1516,8 +1516,17 @@ static int analysisLoader(void *pData, int argc, char **argv, char **NotUsed){
   z = argv[2];
 
   if( pIndex ){
+    int nCol = pIndex->nKeyCol+1;
+#ifdef SQLITE_ENABLE_STAT3_OR_STAT4
+    tRowcnt * const aiRowEst = pIndex->aiRowEst = (tRowcnt*)sqlite3MallocZero(
+        sizeof(tRowcnt) * nCol
+    );
+    if( aiRowEst==0 ) pInfo->db->mallocFailed = 1;
+#else
+    tRowcnt * const aiRowEst = 0;
+#endif
     pIndex->bUnordered = 0;
-    decodeIntArray((char*)z, pIndex->nKeyCol+1, 0, pIndex->aiRowLogEst, pIndex);
+    decodeIntArray((char*)z, nCol, aiRowEst, pIndex->aiRowLogEst, pIndex);
     if( pIndex->pPartIdxWhere==0 ) pTable->nRowLogEst = pIndex->aiRowLogEst[0];
   }else{
     Index fakeIdx;
@@ -1576,25 +1585,38 @@ static void initAvgEq(Index *pIdx){
       pIdx->aAvgEq[nCol] = 1;
     }
     for(iCol=0; iCol<nCol; iCol++){
+      int nSample = pIdx->nSample;
       int i;                    /* Used to iterate through samples */
       tRowcnt sumEq = 0;        /* Sum of the nEq values */
-      tRowcnt nSum = 0;         /* Number of terms contributing to sumEq */
       tRowcnt avgEq = 0;
-      tRowcnt nDLt = pFinal->anDLt[iCol];
+      tRowcnt nRow;             /* Number of rows in index */
+      i64 nSum100 = 0;          /* Number of terms contributing to sumEq */
+      i64 nDist100;             /* Number of distinct values in index */
+
+      if( pIdx->aiRowEst==0 || pIdx->aiRowEst[iCol+1]==0 ){
+        nRow = pFinal->anLt[iCol];
+        nDist100 = (i64)100 * pFinal->anDLt[iCol];
+        nSample--;
+      }else{
+        nRow = pIdx->aiRowEst[0];
+        nDist100 = ((i64)100 * pIdx->aiRowEst[0]) / pIdx->aiRowEst[iCol+1];
+      }
 
       /* Set nSum to the number of distinct (iCol+1) field prefixes that
-      ** occur in the stat4 table for this index before pFinal. Set
-      ** sumEq to the sum of the nEq values for column iCol for the same
-      ** set (adding the value only once where there exist duplicate 
-      ** prefixes).  */
-      for(i=0; i<(pIdx->nSample-1); i++){
-        if( aSample[i].anDLt[iCol]!=aSample[i+1].anDLt[iCol] ){
+      ** occur in the stat4 table for this index. Set sumEq to the sum of 
+      ** the nEq values for column iCol for the same set (adding the value 
+      ** only once where there exist duplicate prefixes).  */
+      for(i=0; i<nSample; i++){
+        if( i==(pIdx->nSample-1)
+         || aSample[i].anDLt[iCol]!=aSample[i+1].anDLt[iCol] 
+        ){
           sumEq += aSample[i].anEq[iCol];
-          nSum++;
+          nSum100 += 100;
         }
       }
-      if( nDLt>nSum ){
-        avgEq = (pFinal->anLt[iCol] - sumEq)/(nDLt - nSum);
+
+      if( nDist100>nSum100 ){
+        avgEq = ((i64)100 * (nRow - sumEq))/(nDist100 - nSum100);
       }
       if( avgEq==0 ) avgEq = 1;
       pIdx->aAvgEq[iCol] = avgEq;
@@ -1846,6 +1868,11 @@ int sqlite3AnalysisLoad(sqlite3 *db, int iDb){
     rc = loadStat4(db, sInfo.zDatabase);
     db->lookaside.bEnabled = lookasideEnabled;
   }
+  for(i=sqliteHashFirst(&db->aDb[iDb].pSchema->idxHash);i;i=sqliteHashNext(i)){
+    Index *pIdx = sqliteHashData(i);
+    sqlite3_free(pIdx->aiRowEst);
+    pIdx->aiRowEst = 0;
+  }
 #endif
 
   if( rc==SQLITE_NOMEM ){
diff --git a/src/build.c b/src/build.c
index 777831aab5..14d8aab587 100644
--- a/src/build.c
+++ b/src/build.c
@@ -435,6 +435,9 @@ static void freeIndex(sqlite3 *db, Index *p){
   sqlite3ExprDelete(db, p->pPartIdxWhere);
   sqlite3DbFree(db, p->zColAff);
   if( p->isResized ) sqlite3DbFree(db, p->azColl);
+#ifdef SQLITE_ENABLE_STAT3_OR_STAT4
+  sqlite3_free(p->aiRowEst);
+#endif
   sqlite3DbFree(db, p);
 }
 
diff --git a/src/sqliteInt.h b/src/sqliteInt.h
index 695b63d753..74c36c8db5 100644
--- a/src/sqliteInt.h
+++ b/src/sqliteInt.h
@@ -1801,6 +1801,7 @@ struct Index {
   int nSampleCol;          /* Size of IndexSample.anEq[] and so on */
   tRowcnt *aAvgEq;         /* Average nEq values for keys not in aSample */
   IndexSample *aSample;    /* Samples of the left-most key */
+  tRowcnt *aiRowEst;       /* Non-logarithmic stat1 data for this table */
 #endif
 };
 
diff --git a/test/analyzeD.test b/test/analyzeD.test
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..4d46be6c64
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/analyzeD.test
@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
+# 2005 July 22
+#
+# The author disclaims copyright to this source code.  In place of
+# a legal notice, here is a blessing:
+#
+#    May you do good and not evil.
+#    May you find forgiveness for yourself and forgive others.
+#    May you share freely, never taking more than you give.
+#
+#***********************************************************************
+# This file implements regression tests for SQLite library.
+# This file implements tests for the ANALYZE command.
+#
+# $Id: analyze.test,v 1.9 2008/08/11 18:44:58 drh Exp $
+
+set testdir [file dirname $argv0]
+source $testdir/tester.tcl
+set ::testprefix analyzeD
+
+ifcapable {!stat4} {
+  finish_test
+  return
+}
+
+
+# Set up a table with the following properties:
+#
+#    * Contains 1000 rows.
+#    * Column a contains even integers between 0 and 18, inclusive (so that
+#      a=? for any such integer matches 100 rows).
+#    * Column b contains integers between 0 and 9, inclusive.
+#    * Column c contains integers between 0 and 199, inclusive (so that
+#      for any such integer, c=? matches 5 rows).
+#    * Then add 7 rows with a new value for "a" - 3001. The stat4 table will
+#      not contain any samples with a=3001.
+#
+do_execsql_test 1.0 {
+  CREATE TABLE t1(a, b, c);
+}
+do_test 1.1 {
+  for {set i 1} {$i < 1000} {incr i} {
+    set c [expr $i % 200]
+    execsql { INSERT INTO t1(a, b, c) VALUES( 2*($i/100), $i%10, $c ) }
+  }
+
+  execsql {
+    INSERT INTO t1 VALUES(3001, 3001, 3001);
+    INSERT INTO t1 VALUES(3001, 3001, 3002);
+    INSERT INTO t1 VALUES(3001, 3001, 3003);
+    INSERT INTO t1 VALUES(3001, 3001, 3004);
+    INSERT INTO t1 VALUES(3001, 3001, 3005);
+    INSERT INTO t1 VALUES(3001, 3001, 3006);
+    INSERT INTO t1 VALUES(3001, 3001, 3007);
+
+    CREATE INDEX t1_ab ON t1(a, b);
+    CREATE INDEX t1_c ON t1(c);
+
+    ANALYZE;
+  }
+} {}
+
+# With full ANALYZE data, SQLite sees that c=150 (5 rows) is better than
+# a=3001 (7 rows).
+#
+do_eqp_test 1.2 {
+  SELECT * FROM t1 WHERE a=3001 AND c=150;
+} {
+  0 0 0 {SEARCH TABLE t1 USING INDEX t1_c (c=?)}
+}
+
+do_test 1.3 {
+  execsql { DELETE FROM sqlite_stat1 }
+  db close
+  sqlite3 db test.db
+} {}
+
+# Without stat1, because 3001 is larger than all samples in the stat4
+# table, SQLite things that a=3001 matches just 1 row. So it (incorrectly)
+# chooses it over the c=150 index (5 rows). Even with stat1 data, things
+# worked this way before commit [e6f7f97dbc].
+#
+do_eqp_test 1.4 {
+  SELECT * FROM t1 WHERE a=3001 AND c=150;
+} {
+  0 0 0 {SEARCH TABLE t1 USING INDEX t1_ab (a=?)}
+}
+
+do_test 1.5 {
+  execsql { 
+    UPDATE t1 SET a=13 WHERE a = 3001;
+    ANALYZE;
+  }
+} {}
+
+do_eqp_test 1.6 {
+  SELECT * FROM t1 WHERE a=13 AND c=150;
+} {
+  0 0 0 {SEARCH TABLE t1 USING INDEX t1_c (c=?)}
+}
+
+do_test 1.7 {
+  execsql { DELETE FROM sqlite_stat1 }
+  db close
+  sqlite3 db test.db
+} {}
+
+# Same test as 1.4, except this time the 7 rows that match the a=? condition 
+# do not feature larger values than all rows in the stat4 table. So SQLite
+# gets this right, even without stat1 data.
+do_eqp_test 1.8 {
+  SELECT * FROM t1 WHERE a=13 AND c=150;
+} {
+  0 0 0 {SEARCH TABLE t1 USING INDEX t1_c (c=?)}
+}
+
+finish_test
+